Climatic Teleconnections Associated with a Western Himalayan River : ! " Melt Period Inflow into the Bhakra Dam in India

$+" $!" Understanding the relationship between low frequency variations in large-scale $#" atmospheric circulation driven by the oceans and high latitude hydro-climatic variability $$" at regional scales is important to assess the projections of climate change in these regions, $%" and for designing measures for climate change adaptation. Here we analyze the recent $&" (1978-2004) variability in the melt period river flow into the Bhakra dam in India through $'" correlation and composite analyses of associated large-scale climatic patterns in winter. $(" Bhakra total inflow is a sum of the Satluj River flow and the volume of flow diverted $)" from the Beas River through the Beas Satluj Link (BSL) channel. These flow components $*" are highly correlated with each other. The spring (March-June), melt period inflow of %+" Bhakra dam is very well correlated with the winter precipitation and temperature of the %!" Satluj basin. Spring seasonal inflow anomalies are primarily connected to the winter %#" atmospheric circulation patterns over the Western Himalayas and adjoining north and %$" central Indian plains, which are in turn linked to the fluctuation of equatorial winter Sea %%" Surface Temperature over the western Indian Ocean and the central Pacific Ocean. They %&" also appear to be modulated by the changes in the winter pressure fields over Indonesian %'" Throughflow, the connecting point of Indian and Pacific Oceans. Low spring inflows are %(" associated with negative temperature anomalies over Siberian High and central to eastern %)" Pacific and a negative pressure system over the South-east Asia, Indonesian Seas, eastern %*" Indian Ocean and western Pacific, and a positive pressure system over Iceland and Arctic &+" during winter corresponding to weaker westerlies. On the other hand, a high inflow in &!" spring is linked with a deep low-pressure system and convergence of wind from two &#" opposite directions over the North Atlantic Ocean, and stronger westerlies. &$" Teleconnections of spring Bhakra inflow with the IOD, SOI and Nino climate indices in &%" winter are also noted, such that positive winter IOD and ENSO events (positive pressure &&" field over east Indian Ocean and west Pacific) are related to higher winter precipitation &'" over the Western Himalayas leading to higher spring inflow of Bhakra. These &(" teleconnections provide some promise for improving the long lead prediction capability &)" for inflows into this important multi-purpose reservoir that is operated at seasonal time &*" scales for irrigation, flood control and hydropower production. They also provide '+" potential directions for the statistical downscaling of precipitation, temperature and/or '!" streamflow directly from large-scale climate model simulations of ocean temperature and '#" atmospheric pressure fields. '$" '%"